The European Union already has an outstanding level of social security compared to the rest of the world. While the EU constitutes less than 6 % of the world's population and 20 % of global gross domestic profit (GDP), it accounts for at least 40 % of global public spending on social protection. According to Eurostat, In the EU-27 in 2020, expenditure on social protection stood at 22.0 % of GDP, at 41.3 % of total global public spending and at €2 943 billion. While the European social model is undoubtedly a unique achievement, it has to be adapted to the challenges of the future to maintain its long-term sustainability. #FutureShocks2022

EPRS policy podcast - Future shocks: Building a European social model for the 21st century

The most serious risks are both complex and complicated. Multiple risks can also arise together. We have recent examples of risks that became reality, and that had an impact on society, economy and political life together. This strengthens the case for cross-sectoral monitoring and cross-sectoral strategies. In this podcast, we’ll give you an overview of the most serious risks facing the EU, from health and security ones, to climate change, energy and economic risks. Governance is key for facing future risks as a society. Effective governance needs to be holistic and strategic analytical capacity. So, risk monitoring should be conducted as part of a broader effort to develop strategic foresight and anticipatory governance.

EPRS policy podcast - Future shocks: Overview of risks for Europe in 2022 and beyond

The war on Ukraine is the latest manifestation of Russia's revisionist policy over the past decade. Russia has increasingly been using hybrid warfare tactics to assert its international position and gain 'strategic leverage'. Russia has used both non-conventional and conventional warfare tactics in conflicts in the EU's neighbourhood, in particular in Syria, Libya, Africa and in Ukraine. Prior to the ongoing war, Russia seized and illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and carried on a war in Donbass, recognising unilaterally, a couple of days before the invasion of Ukraine, the independence of the self-proclaimed independent republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. In this podcast, we’ll analyse the impact of Russia’s expansionism on the EU and different scenarios on Russia’s possible behaviour in the next years, up to 2030. #FutureShocks2022

EPRS policy podcast - Future shocks: Russia's brutal expansionism

European industry is central when it comes to achieving the twin green and digital transition of the EU's economy and society, and making Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. While European industry has strengths (for instance in green tech), it has lagged behind in some key strategic sectors. Common weaknesses in strategic European industrial sectors include high dependency on critical raw materials – for instance around half of the materials needed in aircraft production come from third countries. Other weaknesses are insufficient research and development funding, technology gaps, market fragmentation, underinvestment, and lack of skills. The pandemic has, meanwhile, highlighted the broader vulnerabilities of global supply chains. #FutureShocks2022

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